A contest with no entry fee (?) !
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One fun thing about a journal is you can go back and see how you have done on your predictions.
On August 10, 2005, I posted an entry that covered a few things, including my longs and shorts from a betting website where you can wager on the 2008 US presidential race.
As a side note, in the same entry, I mentioned that our national debt at the time stood at $7.88 trillion. As of yesterday, it's now at $8.67 trillion. Here's a crazy prediction for you: It will keep going up.
In fiscal 2006, we paid $405,872,109,315.83 in interest on the debt, or $1.1 *billion* every day on interest alone.
Digression over. The real reason for this entry is a check-up on my picks for party nominations for the presidential race, and the announcement of a contest.
In the August 2005 entry, I noted that I was not saying anything about my personal preferences; I was just making a statement on who I thought was under-valued or over-valued. All the "now trading" numbers below are the average of the bid/ask rounded to the nearest whole number.
1. Hillary. I said short at 43. Now trading at 48. I'm down 5.
2. Edwards. I said long at 7. Now trading at 15. I'm up 8.
3. Allen. I said short at 17. Now trading at 1. I'm up 16.
4. Condi. I said long at 6. Now trading at 3. I'm down 3.
5. Romney. I said long at 8. Now trading at 16. I'm up 8.
I will now officially take my losses on Rice before she goes to $0 and take my gains on Allen, before he tries to engineer a comeback. All my other positions, I will hold.
And here's the contest:
Anyone who wants to play, go to Tradesports and pick four total candidates (can be any mix of republicans and democrats) for "party nomination." Click on Politics, then US 08 elections. You can go long or short on any of the candidates. ***Remember, no one should assume anything about who you will actually vote for based on your picks; it's just your picks of who you think will actually win or lose...which may or may not have anything to do with who you will vote for.
Get your picks into the comments section of this thread by next Friday, Jan 12. After the picks are in, there will be no interim trading or changing positions allowed. On the day of the official party nominations, I will add up everyone's score, and give the winner a nice bottle of wine. No two-buck chuck here. No cost to enter!
For simplicity, we will mark everything at the bid side.
To start things off, here are my picks for this contest:
Short McCain at 48.0
Long Romney at 15.9
Short Clinton at 47.1
Long Obama 21.1
On August 10, 2005, I posted an entry that covered a few things, including my longs and shorts from a betting website where you can wager on the 2008 US presidential race.
As a side note, in the same entry, I mentioned that our national debt at the time stood at $7.88 trillion. As of yesterday, it's now at $8.67 trillion. Here's a crazy prediction for you: It will keep going up.
In fiscal 2006, we paid $405,872,109,315.83 in interest on the debt, or $1.1 *billion* every day on interest alone.
Digression over. The real reason for this entry is a check-up on my picks for party nominations for the presidential race, and the announcement of a contest.
In the August 2005 entry, I noted that I was not saying anything about my personal preferences; I was just making a statement on who I thought was under-valued or over-valued. All the "now trading" numbers below are the average of the bid/ask rounded to the nearest whole number.
1. Hillary. I said short at 43. Now trading at 48. I'm down 5.
2. Edwards. I said long at 7. Now trading at 15. I'm up 8.
3. Allen. I said short at 17. Now trading at 1. I'm up 16.
4. Condi. I said long at 6. Now trading at 3. I'm down 3.
5. Romney. I said long at 8. Now trading at 16. I'm up 8.
I will now officially take my losses on Rice before she goes to $0 and take my gains on Allen, before he tries to engineer a comeback. All my other positions, I will hold.
And here's the contest:
Anyone who wants to play, go to Tradesports and pick four total candidates (can be any mix of republicans and democrats) for "party nomination." Click on Politics, then US 08 elections. You can go long or short on any of the candidates. ***Remember, no one should assume anything about who you will actually vote for based on your picks; it's just your picks of who you think will actually win or lose...which may or may not have anything to do with who you will vote for.
Get your picks into the comments section of this thread by next Friday, Jan 12. After the picks are in, there will be no interim trading or changing positions allowed. On the day of the official party nominations, I will add up everyone's score, and give the winner a nice bottle of wine. No two-buck chuck here. No cost to enter!
For simplicity, we will mark everything at the bid side.
To start things off, here are my picks for this contest:
Short McCain at 48.0
Long Romney at 15.9
Short Clinton at 47.1
Long Obama 21.1
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