At this momemt, 5:25pm pacific, most news outlets are still reporting 0% to 1% of ballots counted in Ohio and Texas. But the inTrade makets are telling a different story. With big swings occurring in the past 15 minutes, Obama is down 22 points in Ohio, to 6.5 (roughly translated as a 6.5% chance of winning Ohio).

But in Texas, Obama is up 26 points to 81 and Clinton is down 18.7 points to 19.3. So inTrade is giving Obama an 80+% chance of winning Texas as this point. This also was a big swing in the past 15 minutes or so...

We shall see how good inTrade is tonight....