So here it is the day of the Academy Awards and I have yet to write a post about how I think the awards should and will go down. So without further adieu, the Oscar for "Most Procrastinated Blog Entry" goes to...

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Best Motion Picture of the Year

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Diana Ossana; James Schamus
Capote (2005) - Caroline Baron; William Vince (I); Michael Ohoven
Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis; Cathy Schulman
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - Grant Heslov
Munich (2005) - Steven Spielberg (I); Kathleen Kennedy (I); Barry Mendel

Should Win: I gotta go with "Brokeback Mountain." "Munich" was good, but heavy handed. "Capote" is a very close second. "Crash" is very mediocre. "Good Night and Good Luck" was bad ass, but it's not the type of movie that wins Best Picture.

Will Win: I gotta go with "Brokeback Mountain." Movies this hyped going into Oscar weekend rarely lose. "Chicago," "American Beauty," "Return of the King," etc...

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Heath Ledger
Capote (2005) - Philip Seymour Hoffman
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - David Strathairn
Hustle & Flow (2005) - Terrence Howard
Walk the Line (2005) - Joaquin Phoenix

Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. He did the best job, though this is BY FAR the tightest race of the evening. I wouldn't be disappointed if any of these guys win.

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. As I said, this is a close race. Plus, he's won a lot of pre-Oscar awards. That's a good sign.

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005) - Judi Dench
North Country (2005) - Charlize Theron
Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Keira Knightley
Transamerica (2005) - Felicity Huffman
Walk the Line (2005) - Reese Witherspoon

Should Win: Felicity Huffman. She gave the best performance of all these actresses, BY FAR.

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon. Felicity gave the best performance, but Oscar tends to love actresses like Reese Witherspoon.

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Jake Gyllenhaal
Cinderella Man (2005) - Paul Giamatti
Crash (2004) - Matt Dillon (I)
History of Violence, A (2005) - William Hurt (I)
Syriana (2005) - George Clooney

Should Win: Well, Ian McDirmid for "SW: Ep. III." I think he gave the most memorable supporting performance of the year. Too bad he didn't get nominated. :-(

Will Win: George Clooney. How can he not win with "Good Night, and Good Luck" and "Syriana" under his belt this year? I think this is a lock.

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Michelle Williams (I)
Capote (2005) - Catherine Keener
Constant Gardener, The (2005) - Rachel Weisz
Junebug (2005) - Amy Adams (III)
North Country (2005) - Frances McDormand

Should Win: Michelle Williams. Good lord, she was amazing in "Brokeback Mountain." Truth be told, she was better than both Heath and Jake.

Will Win: Rachel Weisz. She's won everything else this year, I think this one is totally hers.

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Best Achievement in Directing

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Ang Lee
Capote (2005) - Bennett Miller (I)
Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - George Clooney
Munich (2005) - Steven Spielberg (I)

Should win: Ang Lee. I can't see him not winning this award, though Steven Spielberg seems to have a lot of pre-Oscar buzz.

Will Win: This one's tough, but I think Ang Lee is going to win this one out. I think "Munich" is a tad bit too controversial for Spielberg to eek out a win.

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Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis; Robert Moresco
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - George Clooney; Grant Heslov
Match Point (2005) - Woody Allen
Squid and the Whale, The (2005) - Noah Baumbach
Syriana (2005) - Stephen Gaghan

Should Win: "Syriana." Yes, it's confusing. But that means it's good...right? Hello???

Will Win: This one's tough, but I'm going to go with "Crash" on this one. Since it's not getting the top prize, it has to win something...right??? Hello???

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Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Larry McMurtry; Diana Ossana
Capote (2005) - Dan Futterman
Constant Gardener, The (2005) - Jeffrey Caine
History of Violence, A (2005) - Josh Olson (I)
Munich (2005) - Tony Kushner; Eric Roth (I)

Should Win: "Brokeback Mountain."

Will Win: "Brokeback Mountain." Do you think Hollywood is going to deny Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana an Oscar for the most layered movie of the year? I think not.

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Best Achievement in Cinematography

Batman Begins (2005) - Wally Pfister
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Rodrigo Prieto
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - Robert Elswit
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Dion Beebe
New World, The (2005) - Emmanuel Lubezki

Should Win: "Brokeback Mountain." Beyond all the complaints people have about this movie, the cinematography isn't one of them. It's gorgeous. Every single frame. This is a lock. Bet the farm on it.

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Best Achievement in Art Direction

Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - James D. Bissell; Jan Pascale
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) - Stuart Craig (I); Stephanie McMillan (I)
King Kong (2005) - Grant Major; Dan Hennah; Simon Bright (II)
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - John Myhre; Gretchen Rau
Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Sarah Greenwood (I); Katie Spencer

Should Win: "Good Night, and Good Luck." The sets in this movie were pretty amazing. It really did feel like an old school studio.

Will Win: Probably "Pride and Prejudice." It's a period piece, no? Don't those always win in these categories?

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Best Achievement in Costume Design

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (2005) - Gabriella Pescucci
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Colleen Atwood
Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005) - Sandy Powell (II)
Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Jacqueline Durran
Walk the Line (2005) - Arianne Phillips

Should Win: "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory." Johnny Depp as Willy Wonka in black leather boots?!?! YES!

Will Win: "Pride and Prejudice." It's a period piece, no? Don't these always win in these categories?

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Best Achievement in Sound

Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, The (2005) - Terry Porter (I); Dean A. Zupancic; Tony Johnson (II)
King Kong (2005) - Christopher Boyes (I); Michael Semanick; Michael Hedges (I); Hammond Peek
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Kevin O'Connell (II); Greg P. Russell; Rick Kline; John Pritchett (I)
Walk the Line (2005) - Paul Massey (I); Doug Hemphill; Peter F. Kurland
War of the Worlds (2005) - Andy Nelson (I); Anna Behlmer; Ron Judkins

Should Win: "STAR WARS." How is this NOT NOMINATED????

Will Win: "King Kong." If this doesn't win, something's majorly awry. Kong's voice trumps those damn aliens in "War of the Worlds" anyday.

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Best Achievement in Editing

Cinderella Man (2005) - Daniel P. Hanley; Mike Hill (I)
Constant Gardener, The (2005) - Claire Simpson
Crash (2004) - Hughes Winborne
Munich (2005) - Michael Kahn (I)
Walk the Line (2005) - Michael McCusker

Should Win: "Cinderella Man." I really liked how the editing in this movie. I thought it was one of the better edited movies of the past couple years.

Will Win: "Cinderella Man" came out too early last year for people to remember it in any major category, do you think most people are going to remember the editing? That being said, "Munich" will take it.

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Best Achievement in Sound Editing

King Kong (2005) - Mike Hopkins (I); Ethan Van der Ryn
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - Wylie Stateman
War of the Worlds (2005) - Richard King (I)

Should Win: STAR WARS. What's up with the technical awards snub?

Will Win: "King Kong." Though I'm not really sure what sound editing even is...

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Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, The (2005) - Dean Wright (I); Bill Westenhofer; Jim Berney; Scott Farrar (I)
King Kong (2005) - Joe Letteri; Brian Van't Hul; Christian Rivers; Richard Taylor (III)
War of the Worlds (2005) - Dennis Muren; Pablo Helman; Randy Dutra; Daniel Sudick

Should Win: STAR WARS. How can "Star Wars: Ep. III" be the ONLY Star Wars movie not nominated for an Academy Award? Are you f*cking kidding me? UGH!!!!

Will Win: STAR WARS. The folks at ILM are going to send the Death Star to blow up tonight's Academy Awards. If that doesn't happen, "King Kong" will take it.

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Best Achievement in Makeup

Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, The (2005) - Howard Berger; Tami Lane
Cinderella Man (2005) - David LeRoy Anderson; Lance Anderson (III)
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005) - Dave Elsey; Annette Miles

Should Win: STAR WARS. Finally a nomination.

Will Win: "The Jesus story with the Lion."

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Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Crash (2004) - Kathleen York (music/lyrics); Michael Becker (music)
For the song "In the Deep".
Hustle & Flow (2005) - Jordan Houston; Cedric Coleman; Paul Beauregard
For the song "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp".
Transamerica (2005) - Dolly Parton
For the song "Travelin' Thru".

Should Win: I'm not even familiar with ANY of these songs? I think I've heard the song from "Crash" before. That one's pretty good.

Will Win: That "Crash" song was pretty alright. I think it'll win.

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Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Gustavo Santaolalla
Constant Gardener, The (2005) - Alberto Iglesias (I)
Memoirs of a Geisha (2005) - John Williams (I)
Munich (2005) - John Williams (I)
Pride & Prejudice (2005) - Dario Marianelli

Should Win: Gustavo Santaolalla. Those guitar strums. Beautiful.

Will Win: Well considering John Williams is up for two awards, it'd be hard to bet against him. But I think Gustavo Santaolalla is going to win.

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Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Corpse Bride (2005) - Tim Burton (I); Mike Johnson (V)
Hauru no ugoku shiro (2004) - Hayao Miyazaki
Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (2005) - Steve Box; Nick Park

Should Win: What? No Pixar movie? Then chances are I haven't seen any of these animated movies? I did see "Corpse Bride," but that stands no chance of winning against...

Will Win: Wallace and Gromit was not only the best reviewed animated movie on this list, it was the best reviewed movie of the year. It's true. Go to rottentomatoes.com and look it up.

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Guess we'll see how it all turned out.

matt out